The St. Louis Cardinals have some clear trends developing in their major league pitching staff. I detailed how those trends could be the ultimate Achilles heel for the team here if you’d like a deeper breakdown. That begs the question, when will reinforcements arrive? At the onset of this 17 games in 17 days schedule crunch for the Cardinals, it’s easy to see a world where recent addition Hunter Dobbins grabs a couple of spot starts for the big league club.
Dobbins, of course, came over in the Contreras deal with the Boston Red Sox. (You remember when we made trades with the Red Sox every 15 minutes this offseason, right?) And in our recent conversation on Redbird Rundown with St. Louis Post-Dispatch writer Benjamin Hochman, I gave my piece of “trust pie” meant for Andre Pallante right to Hunter Dobbins. It was an interesting way to think about the pitchers in St. Louis right now. Give it a listen if that’s your thing: Apple and Spotify!https://www.youtube.com/embed/TsOGSaaWO8w?feature=oembed
If Mr. Dobbins is going to be pitching in our neighborhood (maybe he could don a red sweater to finish my analogy here), what kind of pitcher is he? What should our level of expectation be for him? Will he save our beleaguered pitching staff?
Hunter Dobbins is likely to fit a familiar mold for Cardinals fans
A savior, Hunter Dobbins is unlikely to be. In fact, he may look somewhat similar to the pitchers already in the rotation for the Cardinals. Dobbins started 11 games last year for the Red Sox and pitched in 13. In his primary role as a starter, he racked up a 4.13 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. Let’s remember too that he was pitching in the AL East where apex predators like Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. stalk the field. As a 25-year-old rookie, Dobbins put up pitching results that were 3% better than league average.
For the park, league, and relative experience level that he was pitching in, this is fairly impressive. Dobbins found success in limiting barrels, avoiding walks, and inducing lots of groundballs. If that sounds familiar to you, it should. These are precisely the characteristics of starts that go well for the current crew of starting pitchers in St. Louis.
What about the almighty strikeout? Well, unlike his trade companion Yhoiker Fajardo (who is often to a fantastic start in the minors), Dobbins doesn’t generate much swing and miss. Last year in the minors, he generated 7.64 K/9. In Boston, he had a whiff % in the 22nd percentile and a K% in the 14th percentile. If this pattern holds when he arrives in St. Louis sooner or later, it’s going to look very familiar with Cardinal fans.
What makes Dobbins a league-average pitcher is a sinker/slider combo that was valuable last year. This combo limited damage precisely because it helped Dobbins keep the ball on the ground so much. It’s a well-worn axiom at this point, but it’s much harder to hit doubles and homers when the ball is on the ground.
There will be stretches though when pitchers like Dobbins will excel. In a recent interview, Eno Sarris said that pitchers with a diverse arsenal are more likely to beat their raw Stuff+ numbers. Luckily, Dobbins has five pitches. Because of his capacity for some quick innings due to his pitch-to-contact nature, he does have the ability to have efficient innings and pitch deeper into games.
If you’d like me to venture a comp for Hunter Dobbins, think of Michael McGreevy. He has a bit more velocity in the tank than McGreevy which leads to a smattering of additional strikeouts, but philosophically, it’s on track to be a similar experience to what we’ve seen before.
Obviously, let’s hope he bursts onto the scene and turns into a quality start machine. It’s far more likely that he’s a league-average pitcher – and that’s an amazing achievement for an individual athlete at the highest levels of competition.
I’m ready to see what Dobbins has, but it seems to track to a similar experience that Cardinal fans have had. Thanks for taking the time to read!