In the early season, the St. Louis Cardinals offense is decidedly up and down. This is an encouraging sign given the youth of the lineup and the fact that projection systems mistook the Cardinals for the Colorado Rockies over the winter. One issue thus far in the lineup has been the poor offensive performance of Masyn Winn. There were complicated reasons that he started the year in the cleanup spot, but he’s certainly been closer to a bottom of the order hitter than a cleanup guy thus far.
Clearly, Masyn WInn’s career is going to be carried by his otherworldly defense. Last year, he turned in a defensive season at shortstop that hasn’t been seen in St. Louis since the hallowed days when the Wizard patrolled the area. That’s a fantastic baseline of value for a player and led Winn to accrue 3.5 WAR in a season in which he has nine percent below league average as a hitter.
It’s early, so let’s just get that obligatory statement out of the way. However, based on that offensive performance last season, ti’s fair to start asking questions about his performance. On Redbird Rundown, a listener mailbag question prompted us to consider the three least tradeable major league players on the roster. Winn would’ve been a lock over the winter, but didn’t crack any lists that were given. This prompted a wider ranging conversation about his offensive ceiling. It was interesting. Give it a listen if you’ve got the time – Apple and Spotify!
Masyn Winn Under the Hood
So far in 2026 (Yes, I’m aware it’s still early. Just assume I know for the rest of the article!), Winn is at a paltry 86 wRC+. This is not catastrophic, but we’re looking for more from Winn and I think it’s safe to say you’re off to a proverbial Slow Start. That doesn’t doom your whole season, but the consistently anemic offensive contributions of Winn bear watching.
Let’s first take a swing at one thing we can all see when we watch the games. Masyn Winn is never going to hit for elite power. That’s just not his game. His swing speed is in the 24th percentile in the MLB. He can swing harder than you and I can, but he’s nowhere near the Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Jordan Walker (!!!) stratosphere. That’s ok. It does put a hard ceiling on his offensive production, but the tools are there to be an above average hitter.
What’s interesting about Winn thus far is that some of the important markers of performance show legitimate signs of improvement. He’s striking out a hair under his career average. That’s good! He’s walking at double his career average, which is doubly insane because his offensive results have been so poor in the early going.
This leads to some encouraging data on Statcast. His contact rate puts him in the 83rd percentile. He’s got above average K rates and BB rates compared to his peers. This is so important. Masyn WInn, by and large, does not get himself out. For a guy that’s unlikely to ever hit for much power, it’s critical that he doesn’t lower the ceiling further on his offense by getting himself out all the time. In fact, he’s showing better on base skills than he ever has in the early going.
The further I look into this, the more encouraged I am, actually. wOBA is one of those stats that sounds like it belongs in a secret wing of the military, but it’s a cool number that tries to throw everything into one spot: hits, walks, strikeouts, quality of contact, all of it. Right now, Masyn Winn is running a .296 wOBA. That’s is a below average hitter, which is what Winn was last season.
His xwOBA tells a different story. This factors out the luck for an expected number. We all know luck is part of baseball. We’ve seen guys hit screaming liners “right at the fielder.” This controls for that. His xwOBA is .332. That would be the highest mark of his career – even better than 2024 when he was a four percent above league average hitter.
Honestly, I came to this article fearful of what I would find for Masyn Winn. And, I’m genuinely leaving it more encouraged than I thought I’d be. Essentially, the way Masyn Winn is hitting the ball, limiting strikeouts, and exploding his walk rate is very close to the offensive value of his best season. Given health (and that’s turning into a medium-sized IF with Winn), he’s going to be fine at the plate if he keeps this up. It’s unfair to expect Masyn Winn to run a wRC+ in the 130s or 140s. He’s going to be a fringe all start every year if he’s 10 percent above league average because of the Ozzie Smith level defense (I actually said the name this time. Didn’t want you guys to pass out earlier in the article.)
He’s not a cleanup hitter, but his offensive performance thus far is much better than the results have said it is. Things can always change, but if this holds, Masyn Winn is delivering to this team exactly what is expected of him. We’ve alreay seen an uptick from WInn in recent games. I fully expect that to continue given his underlying metrics.
And that, my friends, is a player I hope I get to watch in St. Louis for a long time